Key Highlights
- IMD’s winter outlook for Dec 2025–Feb 2026 points to region-wise differences in minimum and maximum temperatures, not a uniform ‘colder/warmer’ story.
- Longer fog and haze episodes tend to track calm winds, shallow mixing, and higher night-time humidity—conditions that can persist even when temperatures are near normal.
- Air-quality winter plans (CPCB “Winter Action” and CAQM directions) increasingly focus on local sources: dust, waste burning, traffic, and construction—because stubble smoke is not the only winter driver.
- Plan for volatility: short western-disturbance rain/snow bursts can flip night temperatures, visibility, and AQI in a matter of hours.
India’s winter is no longer a single, predictable “cold season” as most people remember it. The way the cold behaves—where it bites, how long fog hangs, and when pollution spikes—has started to look more like a patchwork of micro-winters stitched together by geography and meteorology.
A key lens is the India Meteorological Department’s seasonal outlook for December 2025 to February 2026. Instead of presenting winter as one national mood, IMD flags that temperature departures vary by region, with some zones likely to see normal to below-normal minima while others lean above normal. That matters because winter discomfort in India is often driven by minimum temperatures (night and early morning), while daytime “maximum” temperatures decide whether people feel winter is truly here or just a long, dusty dusk.
What does the “shift” look like on the ground? First, the season is increasingly defined by “episodes” rather than a steady baseline. A run of calm winds and strong temperature inversion can trap moisture and pollutants near the surface, stretching foggy mornings and turning a cold week into a visibility crisis for airports, highways, and rail. Then a wind change—sometimes tied to a weak western disturbance—can abruptly clear the sky, only for another stagnant window to return. Winter, in other words, is behaving like a series of switches.
Second, the winter-pollution link is getting more structural. The CPCB’s winter action framework and the Commission for Air Quality Management’s repeated directions stress enforcement against open waste burning, dust from construction and roads, and high-emitting vehicles. This is an implicit admission that even when farm-fire smoke is low, Delhi–NCR and other hotspots can still spiral into “very poor” or “severe” air because local sources are constant and the atmosphere becomes a lid in winter.
Third, hill weather is shaping plain weather more visibly. Western disturbances—moisture-bearing systems that influence the Western Himalayan Region—can bring rainfall/snowfall over the hills and nudge temperature and humidity patterns over the plains. When the hills pick up snow and the winds settle, night-time cooling intensifies; when clouds increase, minimum temperatures sometimes rise, but fog can thicken because moisture stays trapped near the surface.
So, when comparing winter 2025 and “winter 2026” (Dec 2025–Feb 2026), the smarter comparison is not “colder vs warmer.” It is: How many stagnant-air days do we get? How frequently do western disturbances refresh winds? How quickly do cities clamp down on dust and burning? And how prepared are we for the stop-start nature of visibility and breathing conditions?
Official reference points for readers: IMD winter seasonal outlook (Dec 2025–Feb 2026); IMD extended-range forecasts; CPCB “Winter Action” framework; CAQM directions and reports; MoEFCC/PIB materials on the National Clean Air Programme.
